A longitudinal analysis of moving desires, expectations and actual moving behaviour

Abstract

Residential mobility theory proposes that moves are often preceded by the expression of moving desires and expectations. Much research has investigated how individuals form these pre-move thoughts, with a largely separate literature examining actual mobility. Although a growing number of studies link pre-move thoughts to subsequent moving behaviour, these often do not explicitly distinguish between different types and combinations of pre-move thoughts. Using 1998-2006 British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data, this study investigates whether moving desires and expectations are empirically distinct pre-move thoughts. Using multinomial regression models we demonstrate that moving desires and expectations have different meanings, and are often held in combination: the factors associated with expecting to move differ depending upon whether the move is also desired (and vice versa). Next, using panel logistic regression models, we show that different desire-expectation combinations have different effects on the probability of subsequent moving behaviour. The study identified two important groups generally overlooked in the literature: those who expect undesired moves and those who desire to move without expecting this to happen.