Scholarly Works - Land Economy
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Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Tail Dependence in REITs Returns / Kridsda Nimmanunta, Kanak Patel. - (SEC Working Paper Forum; 9)(SEC Working Paper Forum, 2015-10-22) Patel, KanaklataThis study investigates the dependence structure of returns of different sectors of equity REITs: Industrial & Office, Residential, Retail, and Hotel & Lodging. The sample covers the daily returns of the U.S. REITs from January 2000 to December 2011. Copulas, which provide a tractable way of modelling non-linear dependency among random variables, are employed under a financial time series framework. The model consists of two parts: the marginal part, which represents the dynamic behaviour of each individual marginal, and the copula part, which represents the joint dependence among those individual components. Specifically, the REITs returns are fitted using GJR-t-GARCH models and then analysed using time-varying conditional copulas to ascertain if tail dependence exists. The study tests a number of well-known copulas, i.e., Gaussian, Student t, Frank, Gumbel, Clayton, and Symmetrised Joe-Clayton, to identify the most suitable one. For Student t copula, the time path of the tail dependence is characterised to see how the dynamics of the tail dependency evolves, and then seek to examine the effects of tail dependence on optimal portfolios. Keywords: REITS, Dependence Structure, Tail Dependence, Conditional Copula JEL Classification: G10, C51, C12, C13, C32Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed The Place of Tort Law in the Public Transport System: The Case of the British Railway(De Gruyter, 2018-09-04) Howarth, DRTort lawyers have occasionally asked themselves the question, ‘What is the place of public transport in the development of tort law?’ But here I ask the question in reverse, namely, what is the place of tort law in the public transport system? That is, in what ways and to what extent does tort law function to deliver the goals of the public transport system, which may be thought of as providing mobility without injuring people? I take as an example the British railway system, tracing out the inputs into the system, the processes within it and the outputs from it and attempt to place tort law among its inputs. That gives us a glimpse of how tort law might influence outputs both directly and indirectly. The answer to thequestionseemstobe,atleastasafirstapproximation,thattortlaw,operating alongside and as part of a system of information flows and incentives, is likely to be more significant for the more peripheral parts in the system than for the organisations immediately concerned with delivering the service.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Brexit and its possible implications for the UK economy and its regions: A post-Keynesian perspective(Wiley, 2018-03-01) McCombie, JSL; Spreafico, MRMThis paper discusses the implications of Brexit for both the UK and its regions, as the latter depends on the former. We concentrate on the forecasts by Her Majesty's Treasury (HMT), the Cambridge Centre for Business Research and the Economists for Brexit. It is argued that the estimates of HMT of the loss of GDP are likely to be overstated, but, nevertheless, there will probably be a fall in output. Given this, the effect on the UK regions is analysed using the regional balance-of-payments constrained growth model. This suggests that Brexit will cause regional disparities to widen.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Future prospects for energy technologies: insights from expert elicitations(Oxford University Press, 2018-01-01) Diaz Anadon, Laura; Verdolini, E; Baker, E; Bosetti, V; Reis, L; Diaz Anadon, Laura [0000-0002-2688-118X]Expert elicitation is a structured approach for obtaining judgments from experts about items of interest to decision makers. This method has been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost, technical performance, and associated uncertainty of specific energy technologies. This article has two main objectives: (1) to introduce the basics of expert elicitations, including their design and implementation, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages and their potential to inform policymaking and energy system decisions; and (2) to discuss and compare the results of a subset of the most recent expert elicitations on energy technologies, with a focus on future cost trajectories and implied cost reduction rates. We argue that the data on future energy costs provided by expert elicitations allows for more transparent and robust analyses that incorporate technical uncertainty, which can then be used to support the design and assessment of energy and climate change mitigation policies.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Rural land rights reform and agro-environmental sustainability: Empirical evidence from China(Elsevier BV, 2018-05) Xu, Y; Huang, X; Bao, HXH; Ju, X; Zhong, T; Chen, Z; Zhou, Y; Bao, Helen [0000-0003-3966-3867]The landscape of China’s rural land market has been changed by several significant land right reforms since the 1970s. It is always of great interest to both the government and the public to gauge the effectiveness of these reforms. We address this question by investigating the impact of a recent land use right reform, namely, the ‘Three Rights Separation Policy’, on agro-environmental sustainability. By separating land management right from land contracted management right, this new reform is believed to be a powerful tool to encourage land transfer, optimize land resource allocation, and increase the economy of scale in the agriculture sector. Using a PSM-DID model applied to panel data for the years 2008 and 2014, our study demonstrates that the new policy also increases the use of organic fertilizers by 48.641 kg/mu in total, which is a very important step to ensure agro-environmental sustainability in China. The new policy is more effective in encouraging the application of organic fertilizer when the issuing of land certificates is enforced and administrative barriers to land right transfers are removed. The findings add value to the growing literature on rural land right reforms in China and may also have significant implications in developing countries with similar rural land tenure systems and underdeveloped land and labor markets.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed INDEMNITY AND THE LAND REGISTRATION ACT 2002(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2014-07) Lees, Emma; Lees, Emma [0000-0001-5998-8242]Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Powers of the Beneficiary of a Trust of a ChargeLees, EFI; Lees, Emma [0000-0001-5998-8242]In Skelwith v Armstrong 1 the High Court was required to grapple with the owners’ powers provisions of the Land Registration Act 2002 (LRA 2002) in relation to the difficult question of the ability of a beneficiary of a trust of a charge to sell title to the mortgaged property. The conclusion of the Court—that such a person does have the power to sell the mortgaged property as if they were a registered chargee—was based on the combined effect of ss.106 and 101 Law of Property Act 1925 (LPA 1925) rather than on s.101 alone or on the owners’ powers contained in the Land Registration Act 2002. The conclusion is not without its difficulties even though, it is argued here, the right result was reached. The primary problem with the reasoning is the discussion of the nemo dat principle and the parallel drawn with the equity release scheme litigation. It is argued that the nemo dat principle is irrelevant here, and the Court’s reasoning in place obscures what ought to be a relatively simple question.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Concretising the precautionary principle in habitats protection – Grüne Lige Sachsen v Freistaat Sachsen and Orleans v Vlaams Gewest(SAGE Publications, 2017-06) Lees, Emma; Lees, Emma [0000-0001-5998-8242]Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Mortgage Express v Lambert: Mere Equities and OverreachingLees, EFI; Lees, Emma [0000-0001-5998-8242]The Court of Appeal has considered the interaction between overriding interests and overreaching. To date, such disputes have arisen largely in the context of interests under a trust.1 In this appeal, the heart of the issue was whether mere equities (in this case, the right to set aside an unconscionable bargain) are capable of being overreached. The Court of Appeal held that they are.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Strategic analysis of the future of national infrastructure(Thomas Telford Ltd., 2017-02) Hall, JW; Thacker, S; Ives, MC; Cao, Y; Chaudry, M; Blainey, SP; Oughton, EJ; Oughton, Edward [0000-0002-2766-008X]© 2016, ICE Publishing. All rights reserved.There have been many calls for a more strategic, long-term approach to national infrastructure in the UK and elsewhere around the world. While appealing in principle, developing a national infrastructure strategy in practice poses major challenges of complexity and uncertainty. The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium has set out a systematic methodology for long-term analysis of the performance of national infrastructure systems. It deals with each infrastructure sector – energy, transport, digital communications, water supply, waste water, flood protection and solid waste – in a consistent framework and assesses the interdependencies between sectors. The method is supported with the world’s first infrastructure ‘system-of-systems’ model, which has been developed for long-term decision analysis in interdependent infrastructure systems. This paper presents the Nismod model’s analysis in the National Needs Assessment report launched at the Institution of Civil Engineers in October 2016.Item Open Access Published version Peer-reviewed Requalification and gentrification in the historical centre of Porto(Universitat de Barcelona, 2017-02-28) Alves, S; Alves, Sónia [0000-0003-1231-8588]© Sonia Alves, 2017. and Scripta Nova, 2017. This paper seeks to test the gentrification hypothesis pertaining to the historical centre of Porto in the context of the changes observed in the economic, social, and housing structures of the city in recent decades. The hypothesis of replacement of low-income families by an upper middle class is tested using a methodology combining techniques of qualitative analysis (semi-structured in-depth interviews with residents and former residents and officials involved in the transformation of the area), and quantitative analysis (statistical data on population and housing). The empirical results indicate that the displacement of low-income families was due more to processes of housing degradation than to housing rehabilitation. It also indicates that in the current phase of neoliberal policy, there are commercial gentrification processes that increase the threat of residential flight from the historic centre.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Poles Apart? A Comparative Study of Housing Policies and Outcomes in Portugal and Denmark(Taylor & Francis, 2017-04-03) Alves, S; Alves, Sónia [0000-0003-1231-8588]Remarkable differences in housing policies and dominant forms of tenure can be observed across countries. To what extent are these differences dictated by major vested interests, and explained by ideology in the context of broader political and socio-economic circumstances? Assuming that the comparison between northern and southern European countries has been largely neglected in comparative housing literature, by using the Danish and Portuguese cases I test Kemeny’s typology of rental systems to explain the divergence between these two housing realities. The empirical evidence presented in this paper emphasizes the relevance of Kemeny’s theories in explaining many of the divergent features of these housing systems, but suggests some adjustments, based upon the differences between Kemeny’s theories of dualist rental systems and what was found in the Portuguese case, which aim to expand its explanatory power.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Spaces of inequality: It’s not differentiation, it is inequality! A socio-spatial analysis of the City of Porto(Intellect, 2016-09-01) Alves, S; Alves, Sónia [0000-0003-1231-8588]Abstract As territorial magnets for people and activities, cities simultaneously concentrate opportunities (e.g. employment, consumption, entertainment) and problems (e.g. unemployment, lack of affordable housing, crime). As a result, they can be regarded as complex social systems, which to some extent are characterized by, and are a source of, inequalities. By analysing the issue of inequality from a socio-spatial perspective, this article aims to show that the post-industrial city is changing insofar as social and spatial disparities are increasing on the basis of income and political influence. The article consists of two parts. The first addresses the issue of inequality and the city, providing a review of the literature on the relationship between social and spatial inequalities. The second is empirical, focusing upon the city of Porto and exploring several intersecting ideas related to the selective processes of de-concentration (or suburbanization) of people and activities, and the way they shape the separation of classes across geographical space. The results confirm the initial hypotheses of increasing socio-spatial inequality in Porto, in a context in which public policies are not geared towards the goal of mitigating socio-economic disparities, but are shaped inversely by consolidated economic ones.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Assessing the impact of area-based initiatives in deprived neighborhoods: The example of S. João de Deus in Porto, Portugal(Wiley, 2017-04-03) Alves, Sónia; Alves, Sónia [0000-0003-1231-8588]Though there have been many area-based initiatives to regenerate rundown areas in numerous cities around the world, many of them involving the demolition of stigmatized housing estates, far fewer attempts have been made to assess the effects of these initiatives upon the fortunes of displaced households and those who remain in these areas. By presenting the results of an empirical in-depth case study on the effects of an area-based initiative targeted at one of the most deprived neighborhoods in Porto, this article raises several epistemological concerns related to the goals, ideological assumptions, and social and spatial effects of these initiatives. Among other interrelated issues, the article discusses the impact of conflicting ideologies upon processes of radical strategy shift and of social and territorial marginalization and appeals to the need for more pluralistic approaches to evaluation.Item Open Access Published version Peer-reviewed Conflitos institucionais no âmbito da Capital Europeia da Cultura Porto 2001(Universidade de Lisboa, 2017-05-03) Alves, Sónia; Alves, Sónia [0000-0003-1231-8588]Whilst institutional conflict can stimulate negotiation skills in the search for agreements with the aim of bringing divergent interests together, in a context of poorly managed institutional tensions, it may also generate negative and disappointing results in terms of urban governance. The purpose of this article is to discuss the institutional conflict within a public-private partnership created to facilitate access to public funding. The article is based upon a case study dating back to 2001 and the preparation of the European Capital of Culture event in Porto, focusing on the institutional conflict that arose in the context of an economic revitalization project related to intervention in the public space. From analysis of the November 2013 decision of the Court of Appeal in Porto, which confirmed the guilty verdict against Sociedade Porto 2001 with regard to poor planning and coordination of works in central Porto, I assess the lessons for urban governance. The findings of this study confirm the importance of better management of tensions and contradictions related to the actions of the various actors involved. They also confirm that the public interest is not something scientifically identifiable, but a social construction that requires better recognition of the diversity of interests that make up society.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2018) Holden, PB; Edwards, NR; Ridgwell, A; Wilkinson, RD; Fraedrich, K; Lunkeit, F; Pollitt, HE; Mercure, JF; Salas, P; Lam, A; Knobloch, F; Chewpreecha, U; Viñuales, JE; Holden, PB [0000-0002-2369-0062]; Edwards, NR [0000-0001-6045-8804]; Ridgwell, A [0000-0003-2333-0128]; Pollitt, HE [0000-0002-0507-3220]; Mercure, JF [0000-0003-2620-9200]; Salas, P [0000-0003-4046-2376]; Knobloch, F [0000-0003-3428-768X]The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C’. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions, and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate-carbon cycle system. Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate-carbon cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7°C, or end-century warming to less than 1.54°C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 GTC and 307 GTC post-2017 emissions, quantifying spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonisation decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (explaining 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets(Springer Nature, 2018) Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollitt, Hector; Vinuales, Jorge E; Edwards, Neil; Holden, Phil; Chewpreecha, U; Salas, Pablo; Sognnaes, Ida; Lam, Aileen; Knobloch, Florian; Sognnaes, Ida [0000-0002-7042-4613]Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.Item Open Access Published version Peer-reviewed The potential impact of Brexit on the energy, water and food nexus in the UK: A fuzzy cognitive mapping approach(Elsevier BV, 2018) Ziv, G; Watson, E; Young, D; Howard, DC; Larcom, ST; Tanentzap, AJ; Ziv, G [0000-0002-6776-0763]© 2017 The Authors. Energy is one of the cornerstones essential for human life, along with other services such as water and food. Understanding how the different services in the energy-water-food (EWF) nexus interact and are perceived by different actors is key to achieving sustainability. In this paper, we derive a model of the EWF nexus using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM). Data were collected in a two-step approach from workshops with researchers and stakeholders involved in the three focal sectors. Four FCMs were developed; one for each of the EWF sectors, and one for the interactions that create the nexus between EWF. The FCM represents the combined views of the groups who participated in the workshops, the importance and limitations of which is discussed. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the aggregated FCM was applied to predict the impacts on the EWF nexus of four scenarios under which the United Kingdom would depart from the European Union (i.e. Brexit). The FCM indicated that energy-related concepts had the largest influence on the EWF nexus and that EWF demand will decrease most under a 'hard-Brexit' scenario. The demand for energy was shown to decline relatively less than other services and was strongly associated with gross domestic product (GDP), whereas UK population size had a stronger effect on water and food demand. Overall, we found a threefold change across all concepts in scenarios without freedom of movement, contribution to the EU budget, and increased policy devolution to the UK.Item Open Access Published version Peer-reviewed Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure(Elsevier, 2018-08) Oughton, EJ; Frias, Z; Russell, T; Sicker, D; Cleevely, DD; Oughton, Edward [0000-0002-2766-008X]Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics. To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.Item Open Access Accepted version Peer-reviewed How does tourism penetration affect house prices? Evidence from Crete, Greece(Cognizant Communication Corporation, 2018-08-01) Kavarnou, D; Nanda, Anupam; Kavarnou, Dimitra [0000-0002-6943-5833]This study examines the relationship between tourism penetration and house prices. We use a very touristic place, Crete which is a major Greek island, as a case study to test research hypotheses. With data from 2006 to 2012, we construct tourism indicators for the four prefectures of Crete. Then by using principal component analysis (PCA) we create a tourism penetration rate (TPR) for each prefecture and rank them in terms of tourism penetration. In the second stage of the analysis, we perform a hedonic house price regression analysis. We establish empirical findings that (i) the TPR of a prefecture has a significant effect on house prices of the prefecture and (ii) house prices are affected by the TPR of the neighboring prefectures, indicating statistically significant tourism spillover effects. The findings, although significant, show asymmetric effects that confirm both the impact of tourism penetration on house prices and the presence of spillover effects across Crete Island. Models are tested for robustness across several specifications. The analytical framework drawing from tourism and housing economics literature is repeatable across regions with a significant tourism sector.